Dear Springboard:
It feels to me like we now live a world where anything could happen and it’s making me really anxious.
I need help coping with all of this.
Sign me,
Too Close to the Edge
Dear Too Close,
A subtle undercurrent of persistent uncertainty is a good description.
The pace of change is accelerating and it has been for many years. Plus, it feels like we’re more vulnerable now to abrupt pivots that can result in unexpected outcomes and disproportionate impact.
So, your unease is understandable.
I think it might be helpful to take a step back and consider two different models.
For many years, seeing the world through a VUCAlens was instructive and helpful.
The acronym VUCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity and was created by the US Army War College in the 1980s to describe the post-Cold War world.
The acronym gained popularity over the years as it seemed an apt description. Now, 40 years on, there is a sentiment that our norms have become more extreme and a new acronym, BANI, better captures our current Zeitgeist.
Let’s unpack this, starting with the components of VUCA.
Volatility is related to both the unpredictability and extent of change; and one consequence has been difficulty in distinguishing between urgency and importance.
Uncertainty is the result of volatile environments and includes the difficulty to predict certain future events.
Complexity describes an environment in which information is available but the volume or nature of it makes it hard to process.
Ambiguity describes circumstances that elude clarity because of conflicting information, misunderstandings or other confusion.
The coping strategies for VUCA:
- Volatility – cultivate resilience and adaptability
- Uncertainty – develop a strategic mindset to embrace experimentation and scenario planning
- Complexity – develop a holistic perspective and leverage diversity in thinking
- Ambiguity – develop ability to tolerate ambiguity; promote clarity and transparency
Believing that VUCA had outlived its usefulness, Jamais Cascio, a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute for the Future wrote an article for Medium in 2020and introduced a different model – BANI.
BANI stands for Brittle, Anxious, Non-Linear and Incomprehensible.
Cascio acknowledges that BANI was an intentional parallel to VUCA. He sees the strains on the system as much greater and writes, “We’ve gone from water to steam.”
Brittle reflects the idea that systems today can be more fragile and prone to breaking under stress or unexpected events. What appears to be strong and stable may be only one crisis away from shattering.
Organizations need to be mindful of vulnerabilities and build resilience to withstand shocks. Witness the global impact of Covid, the recent potentially catastrophic risks to our global economic ecosystem and rising political instability.
Anxious acknowledges the heightened state of uncertainty and anxiety prevalent in today’s environment. Rapid changes and disruptive forces create anxiety and stress, requiring organizations and individuals to proactively address well-being and mental health.
Cascio notes that “anxiety carries with it a sense of helplessness, a fear that no matter what we do, it will always be the wrong thing.” He further notes the impact of our lack of trust in the accuracy of important information. He wrote, “Malinformation is the crystallization of what triggers anxiety.” (Malinformation is bad knowledge that includes disinformation, misinformation, fake news, alternative facts and more.)
Today’s anxiety levels which are alarmingly high call for us to respond with more understanding and empathy.
Nonlinear recognizes that cause-and-effect relationships may not be straightforward or predictable. It emphasizes the need to embrace complexity and nonlinear thinking, recognizing that there is not always a clear relationship of cause and effect and that small efforts/changes can lead to disproportionately big outcomes – and vice versa.
Incomprehensible highlights the idea that our landscape can be challenging to understand fully. The increasing pace of change, technological advancements, and interconnectedness can make it difficult to grasp the full picture, requiring people and organizations to be adaptive and constantly learning.
In some ways BANI is not so different than VUCA, except that BANI feels edgier, riskier, more anxiety generating.
Much has been written about AI recently and, in my mind, just the potential impact contributes to seeing the world through a BANI lens.
There’s no denying we live in a complex world that is evolving to be increasingly challenging.
“At least at a surface level, the components of the acronym might even hint at opportunities for response: brittleness could be met by resilience and slack; anxiety can be eased by empathy and mindfulness; nonlinearity would need context and flexibility; incomprehensibility asks for transparencyand intuition. These may well be more reactions than solutions, but they suggest the possibility that responses can be found,” wrote Cascio.
To build on what he proposes, I think it’s helpful to acknowledge some additional characteristics that will help us thrive:
- Having a growth mindset
- Being agile and adaptable
- Being centered and right sized
- Having a clear sense of purpose
- Grounded in core values
- Belonging to a community
- Anchored in authentic relationships
When I think of change, I often have an image of a surfer out on the water with a big wave coming – fast! The surfer can do nothing, wait, let the wave come crashing down and later complain about rough seas.
Or, the surfer can be alert, anticipate and, with agency and agility, safely ride the wave to shore.